Sunday, December 9, 2012

More believable: "Magic" Employment Report or Seinfeld "Magic Loogie"?

Both are creations of what would appear to be a vivid imagination but in actuality the Keith Hernandez "Magic Loogie" may be slightly more believable!

On it's surface the BLS November jobs report released Friday showed that the number of non-farm payroll jobs added to the U.S. economy beat "analyst" expectations* and that the unemployment rate showed an unexpected drop to 7.7%.

Cause for excitement and joy that the U.S. economy is clicking on all cylinders, right?

Unfortunately, White House and mainstream media spin aside, looking a little bit deeper into the numbers shows anyone who is actually looking that the root cause for the better-than-expected numbers is something else entirely.

From Hot Air:

"The U-6 figure also dropped by two-tenths of a point to 14.4%, its lowest level all year. However, the seasonally-adjusted labor force dropped by 350,000, and the civilian labor force participation rate also dropped two-tenths of a point to 63.6%, almost at the 31-year low hit in August. The employment-population ratio dropped by one-tenth of a percent to 58.7%.

In other words, America isn’t going back to work. Americans are still dropping out of the work force.

Update: The topline number comes from the Establishment Survey, but the Population Survey shows a loss of 122,000 jobs, seasonally adjusted, from October (143,384K to 143,262K)..."

The Keith Hernandez/Seinfeld "Magic Loogie"

While the video clip in embeddable form cannot be found, if you go to the link below you can make your own determination:

What is more believable:

A) That the drop in the unemployment rate since right before the election from 8.3% to the current 7.7% is signaling an improved economy and better jobs market;


B) The "Magic Loogie" that was sent flying in an episode of Seinfeld that you can watch here.

*If analysts typically never get economic statistics or company earnings right then why does anyone give their opinions any credence?

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