Thursday, March 29, 2012

If you thought Greece was out of the woods, think again!

Fresh off of the "credit event" in Greece have we come full circle back to the beginning of the problem?

It seems that the more things change in this soap opera known as the EU sovereign debt crisis the more that they in reality stay pretty much the same.

Given the very recent restructuring of Greece sovereign debt, the austerity plans, the "credit event" that triggered the CDS on that country's bonds and the global angst that accompanied all three, S&P today said in a report that Greece may have to restructure it's debt again at some point in the not-so-distant future.

A great indicator for the fact that the markets are in full agreement with S&P's assessment is the fact that the Greece 10-year government bond is yielding above 20%.

While this fact is bad enough, it is unfortunately not an isolated event as demonstrated by the 10-year sovereign yields of some of the other EU nations below.

If you assume that the smart money playing in this arena knows the underlying situations, some of these other EU countries that are considered "too big to fail" (TBTF), namely Portugal, Italy and Spain, may still be at risk.

(click to make larger)

Stay tuned and don't take your eye off of the ball!

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