Sunday, September 4, 2011

Is the US economy back in recession? (CNN poll)

A more interesting question might be if the US economy ever came out of recession in the first place?

Recession: A decline in GPP for two consecutive quarters.
Recession: When your neighbor loses his job.
Depression: When you lose your job!

Economic statistics are a funny thing in that the only people they really matter to are the pundits who debate them.

I watch and read the discussions over whether the US economy is in danger of double-dipping back into recession.

The suits on television banter back and forth that while activity is tepid and stagnant and that unemployment will remain at historically high levels for the foreseeable future, they just don't see the US economy dropping into contraction territory!

What all of the analysis of economic statistics mean to Americans!

Beyond some textbook economic recession/economic growth definition, has the US economy really ever emerged from recession!

Whether the US economy is growing at 1% a year or contracting 1% a year, the economic reality for the bulk of Americans working in corporate jobs or who run their own small business is that times are really no better now than they were two years ago.

How do I know that? Through anecdotal analysis conducted at bars, social gatherings and in conducting my day to day business.

These are the people who look at their bank accounts with many more withdrawals than deposits, whose company's are laying off or about to lay off more people and who dread getting the mail each day only to see bills coming in.

For them, the US economy is functionally in recession!

CNN poll on what Americans think about the economy!

Fully 82% of those polled see the US economy in recession!

Of that number 35% see us in a serious recession.

Since Obama came into office and massively increased the nations debt under the auspices of jump starting the economy, the number of Americans with the opinion of serious recession has not dipped under 30%.

President Obama's jobs speech

Assuming that President Obama is watching the polls as a guide for his jobs address, over a 2/3 majority in this CNN poll said that jobs creation should take priority over any deficit reduction.

Suffice it to say that the American public will be watching this campaign speech very closely!

The Political Commentator: Please subscribe, Tweet and Google +1 below!

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Subscribe in a reader
Enhanced by Zemanta


  1. From the statistics we have collected from our customers buying behavior, I would say we are not heading for a double dip recession. For instance, our orders for new office furniture have been increasing over the past four months. While this is a positive sign it may be due to the fact that our prices have been heavily discounted vserses the competition.

  2. The ignorant that voted for the Republicans should at least let their representatives know that jobs must come first.

  3. You're right. Get them back from Matha's Vineyard and all of the fundraising trips they're taking around the country. Also tell them to stop using their bully pulpit for campaign speeches like the one they are going to give this Thursday.