Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Sarah Palin can't win!

And neither can most of the rest of these potential Republican candidates.

Electability is all about positions AND likability!

Is the GOP doomed to run just another old political retread?

Can we please get a viable Republican candidate who can appeal to the independent voters while not turning off the GOP base? Is that really too much to ask in a nation of this size?

While I may agree with many of her positions, every time Sarah Palin opens her mouth to speak I cringe. Not because of the words themselves but because of the way that they sound coming out of her mouth.

Is that shallow? I think it is but the likability factor, particularly when running against an incumbent president is huge! It is simply political reality.

Palin and likability

This from a May 4th Quinnipiac poll that showed Palin has 95% name recognition but that 58% of those polled would never vote for her!

Enthusiastic Would consider Would never

Palin: ---------15%------------24%---------------58%


Positions on the issues will matter no doubt. But what matters almost as much is the likability of a candidate. That is just a sad and true fact of politics.

Donald Trump was a perfect case in point. Good on many issues but one of the most unlikable figures on the American scene (his results in the Quinnipiac poll were very close to Sarah Palin).

When someone goes into the voting booth to pull the lever for the candidate of their choice, a variety of factors will go into the mix. For many it is just a straight forward ideological decision.

That was evident when despite the anecdotal evidence that told anyone who bothered to look that Obama was no friend of the Jews or of Israel, the Jews came out in droves to vote for him anyway. Why? That's what liberal Democrats do.

Party-line voting is even more prevalent in the races for lesser positions in state or city government where name recognition is low and all there really is to hang a hat on for those not deeply engaged in the process is political party.

So which voting block matters in 2012?

In the 2012 presidential election in which an incumbent is running, there will be economic factors as well as national security factors that enter the mix. If unemployment stays where it is, the Middle East unrest continues and spreads as it is in Yemen right now and gas prices stay where they are or rise Obama will face severe headwinds.

There may even be ideological factors as some traditional Democrat voting blocks such as Jewish voters may actually come to their senses and realize that the country needs the real change of getting Obama out of the White House.

Independent voters need to be drawn in but will be easy to lose!

The voting block that is absolutely needed to take back the White House are the independents.

The ones who tell me when I ask that who they vote for will depend on who the Republican candidate is.

"Really I say, are you happy with Obama's performance since I assume you voted for him last time?"

"I'm not happy at all!" they say.

If you are unhappy why would you vote for him regardless of the Republican candidate? Just keep your vote in your pocket then!"

That is where the conversation will typically end. No rhyme or reason but simply likability and agreement on some of the issues is what it will take to entice the independents away from making the same mistake that they made the last time.

That being said, can't we come up with someone who is good on the issues and who is likable as well?

That's not to much to ask is it? Is anybody out there?

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7 comments :

  1. I doubt she will run... she has more influence without running and doesn't have to worry about being wrong.

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  2. Hi. Good post.I don't disagree with your overall assessment. As far as your views on how your voice sounds, I agree. Unfortunately,in our society we come to expect a certin "neutrality" in tone and tenor of voice. Just as a caution,however I would note that this is likely a problem for all women in public life,but voices tend to be higher and pitchier than their male counterparts.Both her and Bachmann need to refine their tone a bit,sadly

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  3. You can see many more opinions here:

    http://www.gopusa.com/freshink/2011/05/31/sarah-palin-cant-win/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Today on my show, I talked about what Palin is up to in great detail - my theory as it were. It goes along with your article here very well.

    http://dirkbag.com/podcasts2011/jz060111.mp3

    I don't think Palin could beat Obama in the general election. This is due to many things, but her disapproval among moderates, independents and democrats is a big part of the reason why.

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  5. I like Palin and what she adds to the dialog. Hers is an important voice, setting the Conservative bar high for the other candidates to clear. But I am very concerned with her lack of experience and feel that she should look at a US Senate gig for a term or two before she seriously considers a run for president.

    But I think she has a pretty good chance of winning if she were to run now. I take the anti-Palin polls with a grain of salt. If she were really so inconsequential, why would the left work so hard to destroy her?

    One mistake the Republicans keep making is thinking we must appeal to the middle, to the "independent" voters. While that sentiment is true, the methods are flawed. You don't appeal to the unaffiliated by being like them - Milquetoast, you simply need to convince them that you have the answers. The direction is less important than the confidence you have in the message. Obama's far left affinity didn't matter, but his confidence that he knew how to fix America was a stark contrast to McCain's watering down the Conservative message to epic RINO proportions hoping to persuade the middle that he was most like them.

    The "center" is not so much a political ideology as it is a lack of ideology and commitment. Most "centrists" are centrists because they are unable or unwilling to think for themselves and take a stand. They are just looking for someone to convince them they can lead.

    Even though I think Palin is not yet qualified, there is no doubt that she will show those in the middle that she has a plan and she will be able to show that Obama's plan has failed. Any candidate able to do that is well positioned to beat Obama.

    And look at the liberal poll showing Romney leading Obama. Romney is a global warming believer, government health care advocate and as a Northeastern Republican, as liberal as any RINO out there. There is almost no contrast between Romney and Obama. He is the one the MSM is trying to push as the nominee. They know Obama can easily defeat a Democrat lite.

    I fully expect the polls to continue to reflect positively for wishy-washy Republicans. It is a powerful incentive to convince Republicans that the weakest candidate is the strongest, and vice-versa.

    Beware the MSM agenda!

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  6. Thanks for the thoughts Tom!

    I am looking at Palin's potential for victory using a proxy that I often use which is the feeling I personally get when I watch and listen.

    I would very much like for a charismatic Republican candidate sharing many of her views to run which we don't yet have.

    But from purely a shallow perspective, which is what many of the electorate possess, her look and her sound, forgetting about her message, will turn many of the needed constituencies off.

    This way of thinking brings me down to the lowest common denominator, but isn't that where elections are won and lost?

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