If you were a betting man, what are the prediction markets saying about the potential for Republican control of the House and Senate?

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The Intrade Prediction Markets Offer The Betting Man's Perspective For The Potential of Republicans To Retake Control Of The House And Senate, As Well As Providing Markets Predicting The Outcomes Of Specific Races

Disclaimer: These betting markets are valid only where allowed and The Political Commentator only advocates betting with your head and not over it, but most importantly insists on voting with your heart and following your true convictions.

For some of you pro football fans out there that are participating in a knockout pool (and congratulations if you are still alive), some of the hardest decisions come when you are down to your home team, and common sense tells you one thing and your heart tells you another. Do you bet to win and and root against your team, or do you bet stupidly in order to be able to root for your team?

Definitely not the case in the political betting markets where it is political conviction that will rule the day.

Overwhelmingly the smart money has the Republicans comfortably retaking control of the House, while the betting market for Republican control of the Senate has Democrats in front, but Republican victory is still very possible, making Republican voter turnout critical.

The "markets" for specific races can be seen at Intrade.

2010 US Midterms - 2010 US House of Representatives Control

The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections

Last Price:	90.3 0.2
You can buy this at 90.3
You can sell this at 90.0

The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections

Last Price: 90.3

What does this mean?

90.3 means the market predicts there is a 90.3%
chance that this event happens.

If you think it is more likely than this you should
If you think it is less likely you should

2010 US Midterms - 2010 US Senate Control (Please Read Contract Rules)
The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections
	Last Price: 57.5 0.4 You can buy this at 57.4 You can sell this at 56.5

The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections

Last Price: 57.5

What does this mean?

57.5 means the market predicts there is a 57.5%
chance that this event happens.

If you think it is more likely than this you should
If you think it is less likely you should