I Believe The Answer Is Nothing
Originally created in 1957 as "Atoms for Peace" under the umbrella of the United Nations, this organization has the mighty task of stopping, reducing, or at least minimizing, the proliferation of nuclear weapons around the world. If they find something that isn't kosher, what exactly is the level of punitive action that they take? Does this organization have any bite in these critical times, or does it carry the same swagger as the United Nations Security Council.
(IAEA) "The IAEA Statute specifies a number of actions, discretionary or obligatory, in cases of a breach of a safeguards agreement: alerting the international community (the Board of Governors of the IAEA, all Member States of the IAEA, the United Nations Security Council, the General Assembly of the United Nations); curtailing any IAEA assistance being provided to the State concerned; and suspending the privileges and rights the State derived from IAEA membership.
Once alerted, the international community may wish to take additional measures seen as necessary to induce a State to comply with its undertakings."
Sounds like toothless rhetoric to me, and of little worry to a rogue state bent on attaining nuclear weapons. More of a nuisance and tool to be manipulated.
Iran Playing The Placating Game
Ahead of talks that are soon to be held by certain members of the world community to discuss sanctions against Iran for its' nuclear weapons ambitions, Iran, playing a cat and mouse game, has apparently slowed the expansion of its' nuclear program. This is the expected result from a U.N. inspectors report expected to be released today.
For anyone with the capacity for thought, this is a ruse designed by Iran to buy itself time. A decoy to give some governments the ability to sit back and not have to think about a response. Decision by omission and not by commission is still a decision, albeit not the correct one.
(Reuters) "..Western leaders suspect the Islamic Republic is stealthily pursuing nuclear weapons capability via enrichment of uranium.
Iran denies this, saying it is refining uranium only for electricity so it can export more oil. But it has no nuclear power plants to use the low-enriched material it is stockpiling.
To help win over Russia and China, Western powers want the IAEA to release with the report a classified summary of its inquiry into Western intelligence reports alleging Iran illicitly studied how to design a nuclear bomb, diplomats said.
A diplomat close to the IAEA said this was being considered, after a year of Iranian stonewalling that has stalled the inquiry, with Tehran dismissing the intelligence material as forgeries.
But the IAEA has no evidence showing undeniably that Iran has a bomb agenda, he said, and IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei was loath to publish the summary for fear it could be used for political ends and make the agency look biased against Iran..."
It is exactly this type of anemic oversight and cowardice by the IAEA that has the effect of putting all of the world in jeopardy.
IAEA Vienna Conference September 14th
This brings us to the IAEA Conference to be held in Vienna on September 14. At this meeting the NAM, or Non-Aligned Movement, is seeking to add an item to the agenda that appears to be directly aimed at Israel and the United States. The item is as follows:
A generally worded statement prohibiting an attack on any nuclear installation around the world.
Will this stop those countries who know of the existence of a nuclear weapons capability, or a soon to be attained nuclear weapons capability, from taking it out? Absolutely not! But for the two countries who will have that obligation (under the assumption no others would step up), any document proposed by Iran and signed by others in the world would be one more P.R. piece of trash. The world needs to wake up and realize that time is ticking away and that once Iran achieves the ability to weaponize uranium, the genie, as they say, cannot be put back into the bottle.
And it will not only be Israel and the United States that will be targets. A true line in the sand has to be drawn, and that line will not be drawn by either the IAEA or the U.N. It is up to the world community to man up, and not wait for the other guy (meaning the U.S. and Israel) to take care of things while they hide behind their mothers skirts with cover from some document they sign. The United States has been, and will continue to be the worlds policeman, but it is time for the rest of the world to step up as well.
The likelihood is actually that the U.S., under President Obama will work the diplomatic and negotiation route to death (hopefully just a cliche and not an eventuality) before we would ever consider a military strike. Israel, through necessity, will operate unilaterally, bi-laterally or any other way to preserve its' existence and insure no nukes in Iran.
The same nuclear weapons capability that the world nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, cannot be sure exists.