"That government is best which governs the least, because its people discipline themselves."

-- Thomas Jefferson

"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid."

-- Dwight D Eisenhower

“There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.”
-- John Adams

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Is Kim Jung Terminally Ill? The North Korean Endgame

Kim Jung Il Apparently Is Dying? What And Who Comes Next?


As you can see from the picture to the left, Kim Jung Il, who was suspected of suffering a stroke does not look very well. New reports have him with pancreatic cancer, a cancer whose symptoms typically show up after the cancer has already spread. If that is the case he probably does not have very long to live.

That said, has the groundwork for a smooth transition been laid, or will their be turmoil and upheaval when the time is at hand?

Under normal circumstances conjecture over this would be worth some time, but these are obviously not normal times. As a closed society, a nuclear state and with a location bordering that of one of our closest allies who they have never signed a peace treaty with, a smooth transition is in everybody's best interests. Pyongyang and Seoul are separated by a distance of 121 miles, with only 30 miles between the DMZ and Seoul. North Korean troops could be in Seoul before we could say kimchi.

(Foreign Policy.com) "Reports note that Kim is likely preparing to pick which of his three sons will succeed him -- a transition which has the potential to end the communist state's isolationist foreign policy. The youngest son, Jong-un, around 25 years old, seems the likeliest candidate.

The middle son suffers from unnamed but allegedly debilitating diseases; the eldest became infamous when he attempted to sneak into Japan to visit Tokyo Disneyland with a fake passport..."

I posted a picture of Jong-un back in June, and at the time stated that we know little about him other than the fact that he studied internationally. What are his thoughts and feelings about the west? Does he want his country to get out from under it's isolation or does he believe in the same status quo including bellicose actions designed to try and blackmail the west into accommodations that North Korea wants.

Assuming a somewhat smooth transition, we will be back to the drawing board in terms of attempting to bring them out of the dark and into the world. Much like everything else that we know about North Korea now, it is a wait and see situation. Sphere: Related Content

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