Tuesday, June 23, 2009

The Markets: What To Do and Who To Believe

World Bank Lowers Growth Forecast

Monday morning the World Bank lowered the growth target for the world economies from contracting or falling 1.7% to contracting 2.9%.

For the watchers of programs like CNBC who approach the markets as if it is a daily game with the bulls winning or the bears winning, and with a bias that is always geared to making any news, good or bad, sound good, maybe it is.

Analysts will for the most part be used retreads who have appeared for years with the same song. Right, wrong and no accountability. This is nothing new. I have spoken about it all before. But for you and I, the piker investors who cannot take advantage of every sell off, who don't have the advantage of 20/20 hindsight to say this is where we were supposed to be buying or supposed to be selling, who are living with the prospect of retirement in the next 10 or 15 years, what does it all mean?

CBOE Trading Floor III

Maybe you can track my attitude to the fact that in New York we have had about 20 straight days of rain that could impact anyone's attitude. Or perhaps you could say that the markets seem to have rolled over and are looking extremely tired. Maybe it is the macro world economic picture that seems to be a little bit gloomy right now. Or maybe it is the macro world political picture with Iran and North Korea to name just two. It's possible that it is the fact that the United States needs to borrow so many trillions of dollars that I lost count, or that unemployment is edging up to double digits. There is always the fact that mortgage rates are moving higher which threatens to choke off a recovery in housing that most will say is necessary for the economy to get back on track. General Motors and Chrysler filing is never a good thing to see, and oil moving up past $70 a barrel is definitely not a "green shoot" for the economy (although it pulled back on the forecast of a weaker global economy). Finally, the fact that there are murmurings around the world questioning the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, and even conversations questioning the credit worthiness of America, is like cold water in the face.

So we have the discussions, the bull/bear debates, figure out who is in charge of the markets at the open of trading or at the close of trading. Irrelevant blather that means little in the scope of things but is entertaining, I suppose, for the stock market junkies who watch trading all day.

Then we have this ranting and raving. Maybe all we need is a sunny day!
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  1. your my sunny day everyday mike...

  2. The markets are fickle. Who to believe? No one, do you honestly believe the analysts? Really you do? I have some choice property deep in the Florida Everglades, can let it go for a song.

  3. I think was I was saying is that the analysts are worthless.