First, A Market Update
On December 8, 2008, I wrote the following:
"We will have the analysts and the "experts" explaining why, after this rally off of the lows set a month or so ago has already taken place, that we have seen the bottom. That we are forming a base, backing and filling, poised to now go much higher and all of the other cliches that you will hear on T.V. These are the same guys and gals who simply go with the momentum trade disguised by fancy talk. When oil was at $140 a barrel, there was no doubt that it was going to $200. Now that it is $40 a barrel, there is no doubt that the next step is $20."
In typical Wall Street analyst fashion, the "experts" were wrong and Thursday we took out those lows and now could have another leg down to who knows where. In another example of investors voting with there feet, excitement and more importantly confidence has not been created in the fiscal stimulus and mortgage plans announced by the Obama administration.
You Want It Fast Or Right?
I still know the drill all of you apologists out there. He has only been in office _____(fill in the blank) days.
The problem is that in this case there are no do overs or mulligans, and if he had not properly vetted his plan with Wall Street and others to make sure it would not only be received well but also be the plan with the highest probability of working, then he should have waited. It is arrogance of the worst kind to believe that you know better, particularly with some of the culpable players you have surrounded yourself with.
It rings like an echo in my mind, another Washington cliche that is always rolled out (except in this case where fast was the main goal): You want it fast or you want it right?
Mr. President, we want it right, because the economic stability of country's around the world depends on it. You hopefully did not over play your hand by setting the artificial drop dead deadline that you did.
A Revealing Walk Down Memory Lane
On a separate topic, you will not believe that I am having a real problem with some of the sanctimonious politicians i see on T.V. that speak of the failed policies of the last 8 years as if there was a finite break between the time that the Clinton administration ended and the Bush administration began.
Remember some of the players and situations from before Bush took office? Bill Clinton, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Melvin Watt, the expansion of the Community Reinvestment Act in 1995, the political clout of Fannie Mae, the political contributions made by Fannie Mae (now President Obama was a substantial beneficiary), sweetheart mortgage deals, the attempt to reign in the problem that was blocked by the Democrats when Bush was in office and so on and so on.
I know the rules of Washington. What you say in front of the cameras today is the new reality that wipes out any of your actions that have actually occurred through the years (i.e. Chappaquiddick, sorry couldn't help myself). Even though I know these rules, you reach a point where you just can't listen to it anymore without expressing some outrage.
The clip below was made during the presidential campaign, but is an excellent depiction of when the problem that we now find ourselves in originated.
It will also give some pretty credible evidence to the fact that some of these guys that stand up and say those famous words "the failed policies of the last 8 years" should look in the mirror and understand that while the American public might buy the arguments because no one is really pointing out the reality, they are not really fooling anybody.
Watch The Clip, And After That I Promise We Will Only Look Forward, At Least Until The Next Time.