Friday, November 7, 2008

By The Time You Read This....

The Mother Of All Numbers

At 8:30 this morning (Friday) we will be getting the employment (unemployment) numbers for October. The consensus is for a drop in non-farm payrolls of 210,000, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3%. The level of payroll jobs lost this year to date is over 710,000. Should these numbers come in substantially worse, we will probably give back even more of the recent stock market gains than we have on Wednesday and Thursday. Some analysts think that in subsequent months we could see a non-farm payroll number come in south of 400,000 jobs lost.

Continuing jobless claims hit levels not seen for 25 years jumping by 122,000.

Bank Of England

In what demonstrates the fact that the English economy is in very bad shape, the Bank of England on Thursday morning lowered their key lending rate not 25 bp, not 50 bp, not even a full 100 bp. They lowered their rate a whopping 150 bp.

LIBOR and the TED Spread

The 3-month LIBOR rate (London Interbank Offered Rate) dropped for a 19th straight day on Thursday to 2.375%, a very good development for the credit markets. Unfortunately, in a continued flight to quality, the 3-month Treasury bill is at a level below .4% keeping the TED spread above 2.0%.

1 comment :

  1. The results are in:

    Payrolls down 240,00
    Unemployment rate up to 6.5% from 6.1%

    Stock market futures are still positive at 8:57 AM EST, but given the magnitude of the decline the past two days, they are not showing an impressive bounce.

    S&P futures are 2 points above Fair Value, and I would anticipate another ugly day.